March 16, 2016

Establishment and Trump Supporters Share Same Flaw

Ironies abound in this campaign including how both Republican "establishment" figures and Trump supporters lack the simple ability to read polls.  Even when polls say the same thing over a long period of time.

Establishment types were blind to polls and didn't think Trump was real until it was far too late.  

And Trump voters are making the same mistake by disbelieving polls that show Trump will get creamed in general election due to his sky-high negatives. 

I think it's a case that establishment and Trump voters want something to be true so much that they ignore data to the contrary. But facts are stubborn things. 

People say the polls are always wrong, but I'm having a hard time coming up with a primary race (outside caucuses, which are not really elections in the normal sense) where the results were truly surprising, the single big exception being Bernie Sanders winning Michigan.

Political candidates have made the same mistake with Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio staying in too long, thus paving a path for the Donald. 

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I'd never vote for Trump of course, but I do wonder if it's best not to contest the nomination at this point. 

Because if Cruz is nominated while Trump has the majority of delegates, Trump supporters stay home and Cruz loses the general. If Trump wins nomination, plenty of folks like me won't vote for him, giving Hillary the win. 

And if Trump is denied the nomination at a brokered convention he might run in 2020 and we'll have a guaranteed two Clinton terms instead of one. 

Maybe the honorable thing is to deny him to the extent possible regardless of political consequences, but it seems like Trump fever is a virus that can't be cured except by him losing at the ballot box.

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