May 06, 2016

Odds Playing

Folks say there's more upside with Trump as president than Shrillary, as well as a lot more downside.

I tried to quantify it using the scientifically rigorous SWAG method, assigning points randomly (a terrible presidency should surely be a negative value):

Trump:
Good presidency (2 points):  20% chance  = .2 * 2 = .4
Average presidency (1 pt):    30% chance  = .3 * 1 = .3
Terrible presidency (0 pts):   50% chance  = .5 * 0 = 0
    TOTAL:  .7

Clinton: 
Good presidency (2 pts):     0%  chance   = 0
Avg presidency  (1 pt)         70% chance  = .7
Terrible presidency (0 pt)    30% chance  = 0
   TOTAL = .7

A statistical dead heat easily within the margin of error.

Notes: Clinton is eliminated from having any chance at having a "good" presidency simply on the basis of the 100% certainty of her terrible SCOTUS pick(s).  Assigning a terrible presidency a negative point value would of course put Clinton on top. 

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