July 07, 2016

Outsider Candidate Usually Wins?

If Trump loses this year it would reverse a 20-year trend where the more outsider candidate has triumphed.

Insider/Outsider measurement, with "degree of outsiderness" in original election (scale 1-10; in parenthesis):

1992: BClinton (7) versus G Herb Bush (1)
1996: BClinton (7) versus Dole (1)
2000: W Bush (5) versus Gore (2)
2004: W Bush (5) versus Kerry (2)
2008: Obama (8) versus McCain (3)
2012: Obama (8) versus Romney (5)
2016: Trump (10+) versus HClinton (1)

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