December 04, 2015

Let It Be Known

Let it be known that on this day, 11 months out from the '16 election, it's all over. Hillary has it in the bag short of her being led away in handcuffs.

I'm coming to terms with it. I went through all the stages of grief: denial, depression, etc.., and now acceptance. Hail to the Hillary will be played at the inaugural balls. We'll have a new Liar-in-Chief, but I know it's all good because this world is temporary and persecution is good for the soul. “Love your enemies,” doesn't get exercised much, but conservatives will have manifold opportunities.

Democracy is like a wife: you must love and cherish her through good times and bad. Both when outcomes are good, as in Reagan's election and bad, like Obama's and now Hillary's.

I feel a bit of the prognosticator: In 2000, when Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore - let that sink in: AL GORE! - I realized the country as I knew it was gone. I knew after that election that “W” would be the last Republican president in a generation. (So it's even more dispiriting when he turned out to be a lousy president.) When Hillary wins in 2016, that means a Democrat will have served for 12 straights years with a good opportunity for 16. Pretty close to a generation.

You can fight city hall, but you can't fight demographics. You can't win American elections when people with brown or black skin hate you.

Ultimately the Republicans had a very tough road even if everything went perfectly in the nomination fight. Electoral map greatly favors the Democrat, so Republicans needed to “run the table” .  But democracy is like that. Have to persuade other people, somehow, that your views make sense.

What probably needs to happen is that taxes need to go way up before people will again look at Republican presidential candidates.  As California goes, so goes the republic (eventually), so it's interesting that what drove California rightward in the '70s and '80s was, arguably, the tax revolt of 1978 ("Proposition 13", which became a nationally known phrase).

So it's going to take California going Republican again, which probably means another tax revolt.

Conservative journalist Robert Novak often said that "Republicans were put on this earth to lower taxes" - that's really the only carrot the party has - and truly hardly any people these days are motivated by "I'll lower your taxes".  Until taxes go up significantly and the burden is really felt, there probably won't be a desire for a Republican president.

Ultimately it speaks volumes that effective governors like Kasich, Christie and Walker are at 2%, 2% and 0% respectively in the polls. It's another indication of the ill health of the country and electorate, when competence is punished. If that doesn't show the hopelessness of the situation nothing will.  The two leaders in polls, Hillary and Trump, have in common deep problems with both truthfulness (as well as admitting they are ever wrong). I guess lying is the new black.


Jim Curley said...

I don't know whether to encourage not to lose heart so soon about 2016, or join in your outlook. I may be in denial.

TS said...

I recommend the book, "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hillary". A book yet to be written though.

For the past couple months I began to suspect this wasn't as strong Republican field as advertised. On paper it looked formidable: governors, senators, many who actually performed at a high level. But given how they can't touch Trump or Carson, I began to think that at least in terms of political talent they lack luster.

Obama by now in 2007 was a phenom, and nobody in this field is taking off except for Trump.

So I heard today on Joe Scarborough that the ever astute Mark Halperin has been privately saying for about a year that this is one of the weaker presidential fields in history. And events have certainly attested to that. If you can't beat Trump then something is seriously wrong.

So I actually feel a bit better about the impending Hillary win now because I realize it's not one of these “if only…” years. Like “if only” Trump hadn't run, or “if only” Christie had run, or “if only” the media was on our side…. Ultimately the Republicans just don't have the candidate, so what can you do?

Anonymous said...

Democracy is like a wife: you must love and cherish her through good times and bad. Both when outcomes are good, as in Reagan's election and bad, like Obama's and now Hillary's.

That's right. Voting at all is a personal endorsement of (among other things) the legitimacy of the worst candidate as winner, of the legitimacy of his presence on the ballot, and of the ruling class and their philosophy which produced that ballot.

It is the modern version of the pinch of incense to Caesar.

TS said...

I see it as respecting my neighbor, which seems a particularly Christian virtue (though an ideal I oft fall short of). A reverence and faith in the "soul, vision and even the very purpose of the common man" as Russell Kirk put it. Fascism is on the rise on the right and left (as Jonah Goldberg pointed out, it's not just a right-wing problem) so it's more important than defend democracy.

"The democratic faith is this: that the most terribly important things must be left to ordinary men themselves—the mating of the sexes, the rearing of the young, the laws of the state. This is democracy; and in this I have always believed.” - GK Chesterton