August 04, 2008


I made a calendar entry for March of '09 to check the accuracy of the dire predictions made by one Jeff Culbreath. If Obama has the audacity of hope then Jeff Culbreath has the audacity of pessimism. In my inner battle between pessimism and contrarianism it seems I'm more the latter since I'm ready to predict the opposite of most of what he's written, although he starts quite plausibly:
November ‘08 - Prop 8 fails in CA, same-sex marriage permanently established.

Likely. CA is married to the proposition of same-sex marriage because in CA they love radical experiments to the social order. (As a whole; there are plenty of conservatives there too; just not enough of them.)

November ‘08 - Obama wins presidency; Democrats increase majority in both houses.

The latter half of that is a slam-dunk. The former is 50-50.

Dec ‘08 - Mar ‘09 - Another dry winter for California. Water emergency predicted for summer with massive drop in ag production.

Very possible.

January ‘09 - Price of oil combined with extreme low temperatures triggers heating crisis in the northeast and midwest. Rioting ensues.

Extreme low temps? I thought we were in global warming mode. And Midwesterners don't riot. We merely complain on blogs.
From there the predictions begin to sound very Jean Dixon-y, what with Chief Justice of the Supreme Court mysteriously retiring and two shortly thereafter dying.

My predictions take a contrarian view. I'll say that no Supreme Court justice dies or retires before April of '09. And I'll predict that the price of oil falls to $100 a barrel. A major new Saudi Arabia oil field is scheduled to come online and assuming there isn't trouble with Iran that should relieve some pressure.

So instead of wide unrest, I predict wide rest, at least until 2012 when the Mayan calendar says the world is going to end. Of course this could just be the contrarian in me talking, just as the pessimism in Jeff likes to come out now and then...

No comments: