July 22, 2003

President Bush's poll numbers are in a free-fall, no doubt due to the mess of post-Iraq. Americans want their casualties all together, not spaced out in ones and twos over a period of months. And the enemy knows that and will use it. Our troops are targets for terrorist attacks and it appears that we simply don't have a military solution to terrorism. Israel, with her strong military, has tried to find a military solution and failed. It's hard not to fault George Bush for not seeing this coming or at least warning us this was going to happen. (Andrew Sullivan says we shouldn't be surprised).

The former Soviet Union didn't have a terrorist problem because they didn't play by the rules. They were ruthlessless and invoked fear the way pitcher Ryne Duren used to invoke fear in batters because he was near-sighted and he didn't always know where his 95mph fastball was heading. The U.S. telegraphs her moves via CNN, gives ample warning, eschews assassinations, minimizes enemy casualties and is no Ryne Duren. This is a great and wonderful thing. But it also means we will have to adjust our policies accordingly, understanding are capabilities.

Bottom line, it will be surprising if we can change the hearts and minds of potential terrorists. We are at the beginning of this experiment pitting the realists versus the neo-conservatives. I think we had the right to go into Iraq given Saddam's failure to comply with the conditions ending the first Gulf war, but that doesn't mean it was the prudent thing to do. The jury's still out.

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