July 14, 2006

Middle East

My brother-in-law emails about the Middle East and how Jordan and Egypt and the Saudis are making statements against Hezbollah:
They're apparently miffed that Iran and Syria are making pawns out of the legitimate (in their eyes) Palestinian cause...The balance of power now is unsettled. Iran doesn't have the threat of Iraq, but that doesn't mean they're a major military threat either. Most of their equipment is junk, and they do not control airspace - the Israelis control airspace. Iran and Syria have Russian planes, which are ineffective, and I don't see Egypt or Saudi Arabia coming to the aid of Iran or Syria. I'm not even sure Syria would want crazy Iranians flooding their country to kill Israelis.

Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are raking in tons of cash right now, with oil at $80/barrel. They don't want a war to disrupt that flow of cash.

Israel wants a solution to this Hamas/Hizbollah thing, and this is a good excuse to do something about it. Hamas and Hizbollah are funded primarily via Syria and Iran. Israel can take Syria no problem. We'll need to step up to help them take care of Iran. Israel isn't much concerned with the war widening because they'll blow
up so much stuff that someone will have to come in and do something. They'll have to do what they should've been done by the UN all along, which is try to disarm Hamas and Hizbollah, and hold Iran and Syria accountable for Hamas and Hizbollah .

We'll have to wait and see what happens. Either the Lebanese Gov't is going to kick Hezbollah out of Gov't, get Hizbollah to give up their terrorist ways, or the Lebanese Gov't will fold up like a house of cards (the worst option).

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