Last Week's Conf. Call
Was forced to go to a “earnings conference call” at 9:30am last week. My boss stopped by at 9:23 to round me up. I was sure some horrible mistake was made and so reacted calmly. I said that I was not invited to the meeting since it wasn’t on my calendar. I showed him my Lotus Notes calendar to verify the absence of the meeting. If only the Palestinans and Jews had Lotus Notes! Lotus Notes is highly respected at my company – the final word, the scriptural equivalent of Meeting truth. If you’re not invited you are not obligated under the pain of sin to go.
He saw the absence of notice and agreed, if reluctantly, and understood that some awful mistake was made. (Probably by my discarding the original meeting notice without reading it, truth be told.) But I went anyway, magnanimously, spurred perhaps by the Friday penance of foregoing my morning donut. Penance tends to beget penance which is probably why I don’t initiate penance as much as I should.
The meeting was scheduled for three hours which was as long as the tour intended for Gilligan & his fellow travelers. Traditionally the most painful part is known as the “ice-breaker”. This is where we go around the room and expose ourselves in some non-physical way. It’s not as bad as having to go up and do the Macarena by yourself but it’s almost as dumb. Last time we had to describe ourselves using two letters in our first name. I chose the formal “Thomas” – more letters than “Tom” – and picked the “a” as “assiduous”. I picked the “a” also for “alcohol”, saying how I loved beer (I was thinking how I’d really like to have one right about now). Several others subsequently chose alcohol thus confirming the essential rightness of my choice.
At this meeting we were given another choice: would we like to listen to Dave talk about financials, and all the dullness that that implied, or would we like another ice-breaker? I, with a great majority of my faithful co-horts, raised our hands affirming Dave & his dull financials. Our leader was exasperated: “You guys really are geeks!”
Being called a geek was far better than having to suffer through an ice-breaker (which, by the way, ought to be tested by the CIA as a way of getting terrorists to talk) so I was pleased.
The conference call with the Wall Street analysts began promptly on time. Our leader put it on speaker phone. The CEO or President or CFO or Somebody Really Important led off with preambulatory remarks. He talked with amazing precision; not a false note. There is such a seamlessness to good corporate speech. They never stumble over a word and are never at a loss for words; there is a sort of winsome quality to it all, a sort of “striving-ness” to it. There’s a religious cast: the evergreen promise to get better – to improve sales or decrease expenses (which seem to be the major options). And get better we will since you can’t promise too often before losing your credibility.
But tis true these leaders are great talkers with a preternatural smoothness. You almost hope for a stumble in the way people used to watch Dan Rather in case he did something crazy. They are never, ever rough or harsh. An analyst can say something rude and our leader will show no emotion. He will either confide that we were taken by surprise by that event, or that we were not surprised by that event and that we are working proactively on that.
At first it was a kick to hear these voices from the epicenter in lower Manhattan, from the representatives of the great brokerage firms of yore. Now it’s a bit less so. You mostly just hope they’ll say something particularly impolitic or provocative. I wonder if our fearless leaders ever regret “going public”. Becoming a public company is where the action is, they say, and action is where it’s at by defintion. They thrive on this stuff. It’s the blogger equivalent of being linked by Amy Welborn or Mark Shea. You ain’t nobody till you’re listed on the Exchange. The problem is that once you are you’ve sold your soul. Now you’re living three months at a time, on Wall Street's leash, killing your future earnings so that you can make this quarter’s.
The conference call ended abruptly as there were suddenly no more questions. At this point our leader hung up the phone and we reverted back to our regular meeting. He briefly threatened the reinstatement of the ice-breaker since the conf call was unexpectedly short. I tried to save the day. Normally I never talk in meetings with someone two levels above me. Keeping a low profile is the key to corporate survival after all. But when he asked for questions about the call I raised my hand.
Emboldened by coffee and the fact that it was a Friday I said that I was surprised by the fact those analysts were surprised. After all, we couldn’t predict every picayune sales or expense fluctuation. I suggested that forecasts were as much art as science- after all, how could you really predict human behavior? We were raked over the coals by one analyst for not predicting that sales would be slightly down but how can you predict sales with precision until you actually market something?
Our leader said (rather flatly I thought; he’s obviously not destined for greatness since real leaders let you know you’re wrong while allowing you to think you were brilliant nonetheless) that the forecasts are science and not art. But he never really addressed my essential point that humans are not completely predictable. I know we have these fabulous algorithms that are statistically unimpeachable, but I still think there is unpredictability inherent in the human. My gosh, we’re always being surprised by things in our business – doesn't that suggest either incompetence or an underlying unpredictability?
So let this be a warning to you, the blogging public. See how blogging effects you? You begin to think you're an expert on things you know little about...
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