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Electability Update

Two months ago I attempted to my wild guesses as to the electability ratings for various Republican candidates and I gave Huckabee a 6.5+ rating. That he would play well in the primaries is not too surprising since he's got that Reagan-like persona: folksy, articulate, a corny joke-teller of sunny disposition. But in the general election it's a whole different ballgame.

One strike against Huckabee is something I'll call "presidential fatigue", a well-known tendency of human nature. People want something different. Reagan was the opposite of Carter: a generalist as opposed to a policy wonk, an optimist compared to a pessimist. Clinton the opposite of Reagan (at least in terms of character and politics if not affability). Bush was the opposite of Clinton in terms of character and sticking to principle instead of being poll-driven.

But isn't Huckabee way too much like Bush? Both are compassionate conservatives and frustrated preachers. You can imagine Huckabee leading by emotion just as Bush did when he boasted of "seeing into the soul" of Vladmir Putin.

Bush's perceived characteristics are: inflexibility, inarticulate, not particularly photogenic (i.e. goofy grins), bad manager, too much loyalty to incompetent members of his administration.

So the American people will be looking for someone who is: flexible, articulate, photogenic, good manager, and someone ready to jettison anyone even perceived as incompetent.

Who fits that profile? Hillary Clinton to a great extent. No one doubts her willingness to jettison anyone who gets in the way of her MacBethian ambition. She's photogenic, presumably with the help of a past plastic surgery makeover. Her flexibility is shown by having three positions in two weeks on giving illegals driver's license. Her weak point is being perceived as a good manager, but you can at least say her managing of her campaign has been brilliant.

Who fits this profile for Republicans? Probably Mitt Romney. He's flexible as the day is long (unfortunately). He's articulate, though almost robotic. He's photogenic, if too photogenic. He's a good manager - par excellence. (See 2006 Olympics among other things.) On This Week someone said that every vote for Huckabee is a vote for Giuliani since Huckabee is splitting the social conservative vote.

But, when all is said and done, I think I agree with David Broder (for the first time ever?) - that McCain/Huckabee would probably be the strongest GOP ticket. Huckabee could do the Oprah circuit, the touchy-feely events (and he wouldn't scare off fiscal conservatives and libertarians as he would if he were heading the ticket). McCain, I think, is different enough from George Bush to represent change.