The diverging political fortunes of Barack Obama and McCain can be traced to a single moment. In the middle of September, the net favorable rating for each candidate was about the same. By Oct. 7, Obama was ahead on this measure by about 16 points. Did McCain suddenly become a stumbling failure? No, the world suddenly went into an economic slide. Americans blamed the party with executive power, which is also the party most closely tied in the public mind to bankers and Wall Street. None of this was fair to McCain, who has never been the Wall Street type. But party images are vivid, durable and almost impossible to shift on short notice.I think regardless of Wall Street it's impressive the Republican cycle lasted as long as it did. Bush won by a shoestring in '00 and won in '04 only because incumbents have a huge advantage during wartime. The demographics are running hugely against Republicans, both before and after, since the party can't attract blacks or Latinos in great numbers. Even McCain, who is very open to immigration, is going to get trounced in the Hispanic vote. Given that climate, it's not surprising Dems are going to control everything. Even if McCain ran the perfect campaign it's doubtful to see how he could've won.
October 16, 2008
Gerson quoted on the Corner:
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