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Looking at Latinos

Despite this February prediction from a Latino leader saying that McCain would dominate the Latino vote, it didn't come to pass.

Why?

The owner of the Latinos for McCain website understandably laments:

"I am a first generation American. My father was from Mexico and raised us to respect our family and our God. Most of my uncles and aunts raised my cousins the same way.

It now amazes me to see so many of my fellow Latino’s supporting a Presidential candidate that clearly does not have the heart for our culture or our values.

Case in point. Being raised in the church, I am reminded of the verse... "I knew you while you were in your mother’s womb."

A LA Times article sheds some light on the subject:

Protestant Latinos, a growing group of voters who were key supporters of President Bush in 2004, have shifted their backing to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, driven in large part by anger toward Republican immigration policies...Protestant Latinos -- about a third of all Latinos -- heavily supported Bush's reelection. This year, however, just over half of these voters support Obama for president; a third said they would vote for Republican Sen. John McCain.

More than 80% of Protestant Latinos, who tend to identify themselves as evangelicals, said the candidates' positions on immigration would be central to their vote this year, according to the survey.

Part of it might be due to some guilt by association. It was perhaps naive to think that trying to impede the flow of illegal immigrants would be seen as anything other than a nativist anti-Latino effort. Politico said: "McCain seems to have wound up with the worst of both worlds: He appears to be getting no credit from Latino voters for his past support for immigration reform, while carrying the baggage of other Republicans' hostility to illegal immigration."

This ties into the losing of California because my perception is that Gov. Pete Wilson's attempt to close the border was what turned the state Democratic by associating Republicans with having a dislike for Latinos. In other words, Republicans outside CA didn't learn anything at all from California! Of all the issues for the Republican party to fall on its sword for, is illegal immigration really worth it? I'm cool with killing the party for the pro-life cause, but illegal immigration? I love Laura Ingraham, but... we lost our brand.

Ruben Navarette says:

But make no mistake, when all is said and done, Obama will win the votes of a majority of Latinos. Ironically, he's going to benefit in the general election from the same thing that made it tough for him to win Latinos votes against Clinton in the primary: brand loyalty. This time, the brand is the Democratic Party, and with just one Democrat on the ballot, that's where most Latinos will put their support.

Add to that what a Marketwatch article says in pointing to Obama's Spanish-language ads promising college assistance, greater access to health care and more jobs - in other words, the classic Democrat vote-buying approach.

There were at least two ironies in this election. One was that McCain suffered from his own poor law, i.e. on the McCain-Feingold bill. (Well, I guess that's not irony...) And second was that the Republican most friendly to Latinos would get such a small percentage of their vote. As McCain said on FOX News recently, "it only proves life isn't fair."