No November Surprise...
You can fight city hall, but you can't fight demographics. As I've said before, the Bush years were "pure gift" (although I could've wished for a better gift) in the sense that in the '00 election a then unappealing Al Gore won the popular vote. And in the '04 the incumbent during a war has a huge advantage. Bush was also obviously way overachieving with respect to Hispanic vote appeal, as we see now with McCain's numbers.
But we saw this coming a decade and a half away since as California goes, so eventually goes the nation. When CA went from Republican to Democrat, that should've been a huge wake-up call. Of course, seeing the trend doesn't mean you can stop it. Ancient Rome could've predicted Gibbons's title way in advance without having a way to prevent it from happening. But what if Republicans had become the pro-immigration party instead of merely the anti-illegal immigration party? What if Republicans had pushed for greatly increased immigration quotas from Mexico?
But no sad sacks! We got two justices on the Supreme Court via the magic and luck of a tiny margin in Florida in 2000. The Democrat party can draw from whites, blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, you name it. Republicans can't. When you give away all black and Hispanics and young voters, all the fastest growing groups in the country, it's not if but when you'll fall. The root cause of the Republican fall is not George Bush but demographics combined with a takeover of academia by leftists groomed during the '60s. A biased and flawed education system combined with demographics means you've got troubles. Right here in River City.
The most interesting question is why Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Obama. It certainly gives lie to the sentimental, nostalgic view among some Norte Catholics that Mexican Catholics will be the new soul of America going forward, at least on the issues concerning the sanctity of life. It turns out they're like us: struggling, sinful Catholics who often treat Christianity as a quaint family custom. Or perhaps the vote was lopsided because all recent immigrant groups seek help from the government and thus tend to vote Democratic. Perhaps there was racism, as Bill Luse's note indicated, against a white. Maybe all of the above. To a certain extent the "Who Lost China?" question feels replicated as "Who Lost the Latinos?" now. On the other hand maybe it's better to lose with dignity and honor than win by playing the whole racial spoils game.
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