1) A feint in the opposite political direction. (Works for popes too since many thought Bergoglio was a conservative when he feinted that way years ago.)2) Comfort with television and/or telegenic.3) A lack of experience. Theoretically people’s thirst for a lack of experience must eventually find a bottom, though hopefully before we amend the Constitution and start electing pre-teens. Some would argue our current occupant is a pre-teen but that’s off topic.
So using this criteria:
1) Biden has not impressively feinted in the opposite direction. He gave the VP slot to a California radical instead of someone like Amy Klobuchar. There has been no Bret Baier or Tucker Carlson interview, no Biden appearances outside the bubble. Trump is different as he has feinted a bit in the opposite direction, trying hard to woo Black voters by criminal justice reform and funding Black colleges. And of course he’s gone on leftwing outfits (see “60 Minutes”). So I give this one to Trump.2) Trump is of course supremely comfortable with television. Biden less so, although he didn’t come off as poorly as anticipated during the debates. (Short-term anti-senility drugs work!) Advantage Trump.3) Both candidates have experience now. Trump has had four years in presidency and Biden has had 4,781 years in D.C. So this is a push given that it feels like Trump has been in office for 4,781 years.
So the advantage goes to Trump 2-0-1. It’s possible this model will not work this time due to the unprecedented advertising campaign of NYT, CNN, ABC, etc... For the model to be proven ineffective I think I need to predict correctly only about 85.7% of the time so it will live to see another day regardless of outcome. But I may need to tweak it to add a “propaganda factor” in which I acknowledge the power of Pravda. I would use the combined ratings of ABC-CBS-MSNBC versus that of Fox News and compute a rough factor of media influence.
No comments:
Post a Comment